Italy’s low spread and fiscal discipline are a good start—but turning stability into long-term development requires courage and vision. An analysis by Giovanna Ferrara, president of Unimpresa.
A new signal from the markets: spread drops, confidence rises
On June 11, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds fell below 90 basis points—the lowest in over a decade. But this is more than just a technical indicator: it’s a sign of renewed international trust in Italy’s financial stability.
Far from the panic-inducing spread of past crises, today’s figures reflect a country that has demonstrated fiscal discipline, strategic vision, and a consistent commitment to budget sustainability, despite global uncertainty.
Giovanna Ferrara’s analysis: discipline is not enough
According to Giovanna Ferrara, president of Unimpresa, “The stability of Italy’s public accounts is a shared achievement—but we must now turn it into durable economic development.”
The 10-year BTP yield has settled around 3.45%, far from the dangerous peaks of 2022–2023. Meanwhile, the ECB has started cutting interest rates, signaling that inflation is under control and conditions are improving for both businesses and households.
Key indicators confirm this shift:
- The public deficit is set to drop to 4.4% of GDP in 2024, down from 7.2% in 2022.
- The public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease to 137.8% in 2025, from 140.2% in 2023.
- Tax pressure is stabilizing, and payroll tax cuts are boosting household spending.
Crucially, the cost of interest on public debt is projected to fall by €3.5 billion in 2025–2026, freeing up valuable fiscal space.
From caution to courage: time to invest in growth
Italy is now seen as financially reliable in Europe, just as budget discipline is set to return to the EU’s Stability Pact. But stability must not be mistaken for an end goal.
Ferrara argues: “It’s time to move from caution to courage—to use our fiscal strength as a springboard for inclusive and long-term growth.”
SMEs at the heart of the strategy
Unimpresa insists that Italy must focus on small and medium-sized enterprises, which form the backbone of the economy. Policies should support hiring, innovation, and administrative simplification.
The current favorable financial context must be leveraged to support productive investments, not just celebrated as an achievement.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What does it mean that the spread fell below 90 basis points?
It reflects stronger confidence in Italy’s economy compared to Germany.
2. How does the spread affect citizens?
Lower spreads reduce the cost of public debt, freeing funds for public services and investment.
3. What are the trends in Italy’s deficit and public debt?
Both are declining: deficit at 4.4% in 2024 and debt at 137.8% of GDP in 2025.
4. Why is the ECB rate cut important?
It reduces borrowing costs and stimulates the economy.
5. What effects do payroll tax cuts have?
They increase workers’ net income, boosting internal consumption.
6. Why is lower interest spending good news?
It frees up resources for infrastructure and social programs.
7. What does Unimpresa propose?
Investment in SMEs, digital innovation, administrative reform, and quality jobs.
8. Is current stability sustainable?
Yes, but only if paired with a proactive growth strategy.
9. What role do SMEs play in recovery?
They’re the driving force of the economy and need strong policy support.
10. What does Italy need most now?
To turn fiscal discipline into a vision for the future—with trust, innovation and unity.
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