A global economy with mixed signals
In its 2025 outlook, Robeco foresees another challenging year for the global economy, marked by contrasting signals and complex dynamics. The US demonstrates resilience despite slowing consumption, while Europe and China face secular pressures amid modest recovery signs.
Economic forecasts: three main scenarios
- Baseline scenario: US growth slowing to 1.7% with mild stagflation, while Europe and China benefit from fiscal measures and economic stimuli.
- Optimistic scenario: Looser monetary policies and declining inflation could lead to stronger global growth.
- Downside scenario: Tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and military spending might drive the global economy into dangerous stagflation.
Peter van der Welle, Robeco’s Multi-Asset Strategist, stresses the importance of adaptability in such a rapidly changing environment.
Financial markets: dynamic and diversified management
Robeco expects US stock markets to continue their upward trajectory, though with higher volatility driven by evolving macroeconomic narratives. Among asset classes, caution is advised for high-yield bonds, while investment-grade credit in euros appears more attractive than its US counterpart.
Sustainable investments: long-term resilience
Despite economic challenges, sustainability trends maintain a positive outlook for the long term. In Europe, regulatory support strengthens ESG investments, while the US sees a temporary slowdown. Decarbonization remains a key goal.
Rachel Whittaker, Head of Sustainable Investment Research, emphasizes that a long-term perspective will be crucial to navigate uncertainties.
