Unimpresa: profits from year one, but 30-year payback and limited impact on Sicily and Calabria’s GDP
A €13 billion project
The Unimpresa Research Center places the Messina Bridge among the most ambitious Italian infrastructure projects of the 21st century. With an estimated cost of €13 billion (0.6% of national GDP), it is expected to handle 25 million vehicles and 36,000 trains per year, generating potential revenues between €535M and €800M.
The business model
The project relies on tolls: an average €15 per vehicle (€10 for cars, €20 for trucks) with a hypothetical 50% split between light and heavy vehicles.
- Road tolls: about €375M/year
- Rail traffic: about €160M/year
Total: €535M, potentially up to €800M in high-demand scenarios.
Profits and payback period
The operating profit is estimated at €100M per year, with a positive balance from the first year. However, the payback plan foresees a 30-year horizon, with €3 billion in cumulative profits (23% of total cost). Full recovery will require public contributions, ancillary revenues, and indirect economic benefits.
Gdp impact on sicily and calabria
For Sicily (GDP ~€90B/year), the estimated benefit is below 1% annually.
For Calabria (GDP ~€40B/year), the increase would be between 1.4% and 2.3%, far from unrealistic projections above 100%.
Management and supply chain risks
Unimpresa warns about issues seen in other southern projects, where general contractors sometimes used contract advances for unrelated purposes, causing delays and unpaid local suppliers. Transparent procurement and local business involvement will be key.
The key to success: freight, not passengers
As Giuseppe Spadafora points out, profitability will depend not on population but on freight volumes. A fully integrated logistics ecosystem will be essential, including:
- Upgraded ports (Gioia Tauro, Augusta, Palermo, Catania)
- High-capacity intermodal terminals
- Fast, competitive rail connections
- Domestic distribution hubs linked to major European routes
The risk without a strategy
Without an international logistics vision, the bridge could become an underutilized infrastructure serving mostly passenger traffic. To become a Mediterranean hub, it must attract global operators and integrate into European supply chains.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. How much will the Messina Bridge cost?
About €13 billion.
2. How many vehicles will cross it annually?
Estimated 25 million vehicles and 36,000 trains.
3. What are the projected revenues?
Between €535M and €800M per year, depending on demand and logistics efficiency.
4. When is the investment expected to pay back?
In around 30 years, considering public contributions and indirect benefits.
5. What will be the impact on Sicily’s GDP?
Less than 1% annually.
6. And on Calabria?
Between 1.4% and 2.3% of annual regional GDP.
7. Will passenger traffic be enough to sustain the bridge?
No, freight traffic will be the real driver of profitability.
8. Which ports will be strategic for the bridge?
Gioia Tauro, Augusta, Palermo, and Catania, along with smaller ports.
9. Are there risks in managing the project?
Yes, including possible misuse of contract advances and delays in the supply chain.
10. Why is an integrated logistics strategy necessary?
Because the bridge alone won’t generate enough demand — it needs to be part of a Mediterranean logistics hubconnected to main European routes.