Marcos vs Duterte: the Philippine vote that could change everything

Millions head to the polls in a midterm election that could seal Vice President Duterte’s fate amid a brutal power struggle with President Marcos

A vote between ballots and vendetta

The midterm elections in the Philippines today are anything but routine. This is more than just electing senators—this is a national referendum on power, loyalty, and survival. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte are locked in a fierce political feud that has split the country in two.

From 7:00 AM local time (1:00 AM in Italy), millions of Filipinos are casting their votes for 12 Senate seats. But behind this democratic process is a much deeper game: the 2028 presidential race is already taking shape—and today’s vote may decide who stays in it.

A Senate that holds the key

The 12 senators elected today will make up half of the jury in the impeachment trial against Vice President Duterte, scheduled for July. If she’s convicted, she could be permanently banned from holding public office, effectively ending her presidential ambitions before they begin.

While the official charges remain shrouded in political mystery, many analysts believe this is a calculated move by Marcos to eliminate his strongest rival well before 2028.

Marcos consolidates power, Duterte fights back

President Marcos Jr., son of the infamous dictator, is trying to use this election as a vote of confidence in his leadership. Backed by much of the elite, he’s hoping to extend his influence across all branches of government. But Duterte, with her tough persona and support among the working class and conservatives, is no easy target.

This vote reflects a deep national divide—between those who favor Duterte’s hardline legacy and those aligned with Marcos’ promises of reform and stability.

What’s next?

If Duterte is ousted, the Marcos camp will have a clearer path to the presidency in 2028. But if she survives impeachment, she could emerge stronger, turning political persecution into popular support.

The outcome of today’s vote could shift the balance of power in the Philippines for years. And the countdown to the real battle—the 2028 presidential election—starts now.