Italy’s inflation has shown a lower-than-expected trend, with data surprising analysts. According to the Unimpresa Research Center, the consumer price index remained stable in December, with a harmonized annual rate of 1.4% and a national index fixed at 1.3%. On a monthly basis, both indicators recorded only a slight increase of 0.1%. This trend contrasts with the broader Eurozone, where inflation reached 2.4% in the same period.
A key factor is the trend in energy prices, which, while rising in Europe (+0.6% monthly), continue to decline in Italy on an annual basis (-2.9%). However, regulated energy prices have accelerated, increasing by 11.9% compared to 7.4% in November. The cost of services has slightly slowed down, from a 2.8% increase to a more moderate 2.6%, thanks to lower prices in leisure and personal care sectors.
Forecasts for 2025 indicate a further normalization, with inflation rates expected to stabilize around 2%, aligning with the European Central Bank’s target. This scenario could lead to an interest rate cut, aiming to bring deposit rates to 2% by mid-year. However, the Eurozone’s economic slowdown could lead to further downward revisions.
The so-called “shopping basket,” which includes essential consumer goods, recorded a monthly decline of 0.2%, with annual growth slowing to 1.9%, suggesting that financial pressure on households is easing. Moreover, core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, stands at 1.8% on a harmonized basis, well below the Eurozone average.
What impact will these dynamics have on the Italian economy? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
