Following the Iran attack, Unimpresa warns of massive energy price hikes hitting logistics, agri-food, and chemical sectors
Another energy shock hits Italian SMEs
The Israeli airstrike on Iran reignited geopolitical tensions and triggered an immediate surge in energy commodity markets. With gas up +4% and oil climbing +8%, Italian SMEs are bracing for a potential energy bill increase of over €11 billion in 2025.
This alarm was raised by the Unimpresa Research Center, which forecasts a possible 20% annual average increasein gas and oil prices compared to 2024.
The numbers: €6 billion for gas, €5 billion for oil
In 2024, the average gas price stood at €35/MWh. A projected increase to €42/MWh would result in €10.5 billion in additional energy costs for Italian businesses. With SMEs consuming 60% of the industrial energy demand, over €6 billion would fall directly on them.
On the oil front, a jump from $65 to $78 per barrel would drive up total petroleum product costs by €8.7 billion, with €5.2 billion affecting SMEs, especially in transport, agriculture, and logistics.
Chain effects: inflation, shrinking margins, slowed investment
The impact isn’t limited to utility bills. Energy price hikes ripple across the entire supply chain. Transport costs alone could increase by 5–7%, while petrochemical-based raw materials such as plastics would see a sharp rise.
For businesses, this means operating margins could drop by 1.5–2.5 percentage points, limiting investment capacity and slowing the energy transition. On the consumer end, inflation may rise by 0.3–0.5 percentage points, squeezing family budgets further.
The sectors most exposed
According to Unimpresa, these are the most energy-sensitive industries:
- Transport and logistics: energy represents up to 30% of total costs
- Heavy industry and manufacturing: 25–35%
- Agri-food: highly dependent on both gas and fuel
- Chemicals and plastics: the oil price multiplier effect is potentially devastating
Unimpresa’s proposals
“It’s unacceptable that Italian SMEs remain hostages of energy geopolitics,” says Giuseppe Spadafora, Vice President of Unimpresa. Among the urgent measures proposed:
- Extension of energy tax credits
- Cutting energy-related utility surcharges
- Incentives for renewable energy self-production
Unimpresa is also urging the EU to move beyond passivity and adopt a coherent energy strategy: increase storage capacity, diversify sources, and shield businesses from speculative spikes.
FAQ
1. Why did gas and oil prices spike after the Iran attack?
Due to rising geopolitical risk and concerns over Middle Eastern energy supply stability.
2. How much could gas prices increase?
From €35/MWh to around €42/MWh, a 20% jump.
3. Which businesses are most at risk?
Those in transport, agri-food, chemicals, and heavy manufacturing.
4. What are Unimpresa’s proposed solutions?
Tax credits, renewable energy incentives, and utility charge reduction.
5. What’s the estimated inflation impact?
An increase of about 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points.
6. Could oil prices climb further?
Yes, depending on how the geopolitical situation evolves.
7. What role does the EU play?
Currently too passive; Unimpresa calls for strategic intervention.
8. How have markets reacted?
With immediate surges in gas and oil futures, similar to 2022.
9. Is Italy ready for another energy shock?
Not entirely. SMEs remain fragile and reliant on fossil energy.
10. What can SMEs do now?
Review energy contracts, consider renewable self-generation, and cut consumption.
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