Inflation at 1.7% in Italy: a sign of stability, not of alarm

Unimpresa: “The rise is physiological. We’re moving closer to the ECB’s ideal threshold.”

Inflation in June 2025: a positive sign, not a threat

The +1.7% inflation rate recorded in Italy in June 2025 is not a red flag, but rather a healthy indicator of a return to economic normality. According to Unimpresa’s Research Center, it signals a move toward the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, which is considered ideal for a balanced economy. The modest price increase is largely due to sector-specific and seasonal trends, especially in food, while energy prices continue to cool.

Food prices up, energy prices down

The price index is mainly pushed by increases in unprocessed food (+4.2%) and processed food (+3.0%), driven by climate-related impacts and supply chain pressures. However, there is no indication of widespread inflation. On the contrary, energy prices show a strong decline: regulated energy rose +22.7% (down from +29.3%) and unregulated energy dropped by -4.6% year-on-year. This reflects a rebalance of price structures, contributing to macroeconomic stability.

Core inflation stable: prudent consumption and steady wages

Core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food, stands at 1.8%, a sign of moderate wage growth and a cautious rebound in domestic demand. According to Unimpresa’s president, Giovanna Ferrara, this confirms a return to balance after the shocks of recent years. Inflation is no longer driven by destabilizing structural elements, but by predictable and contained sectoral dynamics.

Trust in fundamentals: a step toward normalisation

For Unimpresa, the 1.7% inflation figure marks progress toward normalisation, not a cause for concern. The gradual return to the ECB’s 2% target is a sign of confidence in Italy’s economic fundamentals. Still, it’s essential to support this trend with domestic demand, growth-oriented fiscal policies, and energy cost monitoring. Sectors like food and logistics remain under observation, but the outlook remains positive and balanced.

Frequently asked questions

1. What does 1.7% inflation mean?
It means prices rose by 1.7% compared to June 2024.

2. Is it a cause for concern?
No. Unimpresa views it as a step toward economic balance.

3. Which sectors saw the biggest price increases?
Mainly unprocessed and processed food due to seasonal effects.

4. Are energy prices rising again?
No. Energy prices are decreasing, especially in unregulated markets.

5. What is core inflation?
Inflation excluding energy and fresh food, used to assess long-term trends.

6. Will inflation keep rising?
Not likely. Forecasts suggest a range of 1.5%–1.8% in 2025.

7. How does this affect households?
Limited impact: wage stability and cautious spending help offset it.

8. How does it affect the real economy?
It supports a healthy balance between income, spending, and savings.

9. What is the ECB likely to do?
Stay the course, maintaining policies toward a 2% inflation target.

10. What should the government focus on?
Strengthening internal demand and monitoring key price-sensitive sectors.