Global slowdown spares no one: GDP forecasts cut across the board
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a fresh warning on the state of the global economy, deeply affected by escalating trade tensions and the introduction of new tariffs. In its latest economic review, the IMF has cut its global GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the downgrade hitting all major economies indiscriminately.
Italy under pressure: GDP revised down to +0.4% in 2025
Italy has not been spared: the IMF now projects GDP growth at just +0.4% in 2025, a drop of 0.3 percentage pointsfrom its previous forecast. In 2026, growth is expected to reach only +0.8%, down 0.1 points from the January estimate. This sluggish pace signals a phase of economic stagnation, weighed down by high public debt and a lack of structural reforms.
Germany stalls, France sluggish: eurozone losing steam
Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse, is now projected to see zero growth in 2025, with a modest rebound to +0.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, France is forecast to grow by only +0.6% in 2025 and +1.0% in 2026. Both economies suffer from the combined effects of global trade uncertainty, monetary tightening, and sluggish investment confidence.
UK shows stability, but momentum is lacking
The United Kingdom appears slightly more resilient: its GDP is forecast to grow by +1.1% in 2025, rising to +1.4% in 2026. Despite lingering post-Brexit uncertainties and persistent inflation, the UK economy seems to be weathering the storm better than some of its continental neighbors—though it remains far from a strong, sustainable growth trajectory.
What’s behind the cuts: tariffs, geopolitics and sticky inflation
These downward revisions stem from a volatile mix of tariff hikes, geopolitical instability, continued central bank tightening, and elevated energy costs. According to the IMF, these factors continue to weigh heavily on global growth, especially across advanced economies.
Conclusion: rebuilding the path to growth
The IMF’s message is clear: a shift towards international cooperation, targeted fiscal policies, and stronger investments in innovation and energy transition is urgently needed. Without decisive action, major economies risk entering a phase of fragile and slow growth, with serious consequences for employment, social cohesion, and global competitiveness.
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