Unimpresa’s think tank challenges OECD’s outlook and sees stronger global expansion driven by emerging markets, tech innovation, and economic cooperation
Unimpresa’s contrarian optimism on OECD global outlook
The latest OECD Economic Outlook projects a slowdown in global growth to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. But Italy’s Unimpresa Research Center disagrees: it calls this outlook excessively pessimistic and offers an alternative scenario with stronger worldwide economic expansion. According to Unimpresa, growing technological adoption, emerging market demand, and coordinated policy action could push global growth to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
Recovery drivers: Asia, digital infrastructure and sustainability
Unimpresa’s analysis emphasizes the pivotal roles of China and India, where expansionary fiscal policies are already boosting domestic demand. At the same time, sectors such as digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and automationare attracting significant global investment. A faster technological transition, led by AI and supply chain innovation, could enhance global productivity and bring down costs.
Inflation back to target by 2025?
While the OECD anticipates inflation targets to be met only in 2026, Unimpresa proposes a more optimistic path: inflation could stabilize as early as late 2025, thanks to improved productivity and fiscal stimulus. Coordinated actions from central banks worldwide could help avoid inflationary spirals and contain price levels without derailing growth.
Confidence, wages and demand: internal markets remain solid
Despite uncertainties, strong labor markets and growing real wages continue to support consumer confidence in advanced economies. This resilience in consumption may cushion external shocks and fuel domestic demand over the next two years.
What risks remain? Geopolitics, commodity prices and tight monetary policies
Unimpresa doesn’t ignore risks: geopolitical tensions, commodity price spikes, or further monetary tightening could hinder the recovery. Yet the key lies in the ability of policymakers to act in unison, resisting protectionism through regional and multilateral trade agreements.
FAQ
1. What does the OECD forecast for global growth in 2025?
A global GDP expansion of 2.9%, down from 3.3% in 2024.
2. What are Unimpresa’s projections?
The research center sees 3.1% growth in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
3. Why does Unimpresa consider the OECD too pessimistic?
It underestimates positive factors like tech innovation, strong consumption, and fiscal support.
4. Could inflation ease earlier than expected?
Yes, Unimpresa believes inflation could hit target levels by end-2025 due to higher productivity and smart fiscal policies.
5. Which countries are key to global growth?
Primarily China and India, with strong contributions from the EU in digital and green transitions.
6. How does technology influence growth?
It boosts productivity, lowers costs, and optimizes global supply chains.
7. What are the most attractive investment sectors?
Renewables, artificial intelligence, and smart infrastructure.
8. How can protectionism be tackled?
Through bilateral and multilateral trade deals that foster cooperation.
9. What is the state of consumption in advanced economies?
It remains resilient thanks to stable employment and real wage growth.
10. What risks could derail the optimistic scenario?
Rising geopolitical tensions, energy costs, and overly restrictive monetary policies.
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