Public finances breathe, but debt sustainability remains the challenge
The decline of the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds below 100 basis points is more than symbolic: according to Unimpresa’s Research Center, it could bring Italy savings of up to €13 billion between 2025 and 2026. About €5 billion as early as 2025 and more than €7–8 billion in 2026, thanks to refinancing debt at lower rates.
Between 2022 and 2023, the spread had soared above 200 basis points, with yields exceeding 5%. Today, it has shrunk to around 90–100 points, with BTP yields at 3.6–3.7%. This compression eases debt servicing costs.
The Italian Treasury issues around €500 billion annually, one-third of the entire debt stock. Each basis point less translates into €23–24 million in yearly savings. With refinancing waves in 2025–26, debt once issued at higher costs will be replaced with cheaper bonds, multiplying the effect.
Still, Paolo Longobardi, president of Unimpresa, warns:
“The falling spread is an opportunity, not a guarantee. External factors such as Bund supply and ECB support play a major role. Italy must stay disciplined and use savings to reduce debt or foster growth.”
From Draghi’s government to Meloni’s, the spread trajectory highlights a shift: from over 240 basis points in 2022, to 203 in 2023, 118 in 2024, down to 85 in August 2025, the lowest since 2010.