According to Unimpresa, Brussels is painting an overly optimistic picture while SMEs call for realism and flexibility
Growth revised downward: EU braces for economic slowdown
The Spring 2025 economic forecasts to be published on May 16 by the European Commission will be a key moment for assessing the EU’s economic trajectory. According to Unimpresa’s research center, the euro area’s growth forecast is expected to drop from 1.3% to just 0.8%. The main reasons: weak internal demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the impact of new US tariffs on global trade.
Inflation easing, but not without risks
The Commission should confirm a gradual decline in inflation to 2.2% in 2025, thanks to lower energy prices and tight monetary policy by the ECB. However, energy shocks or new American tariffs could reignite inflationary pressures. If that happens, the ECB might reconsider further rate cuts, delaying economic recovery.
Italy’s case: stability versus stimulus
For Italy, Brussels is expected to align with government forecasts: a 4% deficit and 141.7% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025. Yet the enforcement of the new Stability Pact could force fiscal adjustments just when stimulus and investments are most needed. Unimpresa warns that budgetary rigidity could derail growth if delays in the PNRRpersist.
Unimpresa: “Less optimism, more action”
Unimpresa’s director general, Mariagrazia Lupo Albore, is blunt: “Italian SMEs operate in the real economy, not in spreadsheets. If eurozone growth falls below 1%, we need brave, flexible policies.” Her call to Brussels: reward structural reforms, avoid punitive budget rules, and acknowledge that growth—not just cuts—is key to debt sustainability.
Final thoughts: forecasts must match reality
These forecasts will test Brussels’ ability to reflect the true economic climate. The challenge is clear: can Europe recalibrate its priorities, or will it remain anchored to numbers that don’t reflect daily struggles? Italy, meanwhile, balances once again between discipline and development.
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