Unimpresa raises the alarm: the USA-Iran escalation could trigger a new crisis for Italian SMEs and households. Urgent government intervention needed.
Military tensions bring economic shock to Italy
The American military strike on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s harsh retaliation against Israel are not just geopolitical events. According to Unimpresa’s Research Center, they represent a direct economic threat to Italy. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) could face an energy bill increase of up to €6,000 in the third quarter of 2025 alone.
This rise, triggered by skyrocketing oil and gas prices, risks disrupting Italy’s entire production ecosystem, still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The result? A surge in inflation, potentially reaching 3%, and a direct impact on consumer prices.
SMEs at risk: +15–20% energy costs in Q3
In just hours following the first military actions, Amsterdam’s TTF gas prices surged by nearly 9%, while Brent crude oil remained steadily above $95 per barrel. If this trend continues, manufacturing SMEs could see their energy bills rise 15–20%, translating into monthly increases of €4,000–6,000.
The most affected sectors include:
- Metallurgy
- Ceramics
- Glass and paper
- Food processing
- Heavy mechanics
But even craftsmen, small retailers, and service businesses are beginning to feel the pinch.
Higher bills mean higher prices for consumers
When energy costs rise unpredictably, companies cut costs, delay investments, slow production, or pass on increases to customers. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Essential goods like bread, pasta, milk, and meat could rise in price by 2–4% between July and September, even if raw material prices stay stable.
This hits hardest those with fixed incomes, making everyday life more expensive and threatening economic stability for families and communities.
Unimpresa: “We need an emergency task force now”
Given this outlook, Unimpresa is calling for:
- Real-time monitoring of oil and gas prices
- An emergency task force at Palazzo Chigi
- Inclusion of business associations, regulatory authorities, and energy sector operators
“We cannot face another energy crisis with ordinary tools,” said Giuseppe Spadafora, Unimpresa’s Vice President. “Swift and coordinated action is essential to protect both SMEs and end consumers.”
FAQ
1. Why are energy prices rising?
Due to the escalating military conflict between the USA, Iran, and Israel, disrupting oil and gas markets.
2. Which companies are most at risk?
Energy-intensive industries like metallurgy, ceramics, food, glass, paper, and heavy machinery.
3. How much will SME bills rise?
Up to €6,000 in just three months, especially for medium-sized manufacturers.
4. How does this affect everyday people?
Prices of essential goods and services will increase, especially for food and public transport.
5. Will inflation go up?
Yes. The inflation rate could rise by 0.8 percentage points, returning to 3% by September.
6. What is Unimpresa asking for?
A national energy crisis table, and active price monitoring.
7. Why is Italy particularly vulnerable?
Because it imports over 75% of its energy and has a fragmented, undercapitalized business system.
8. Could companies shut down?
Yes, if energy costs remain unsustainable, production cuts or closures could follow.
9. How are prices and inflation connected?
When energy costs rise, companies pass the increase to consumers, leading to price hikes and inflation.
10. Will there be government support?
Only if the emergency table is activated and concrete measures are taken quickly.
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