When banking restrictions open the door to organized crime
Credit Under Siege: A Gateway for Organized Crime
When banks restrict lending, organized crime finds room to maneuver.
According to a new analysis by the Unimpresa Research Center, based on Bank of Italy and Financial Intelligence Unit (UIF) data, there is a direct correlation between credit rationing and the risk of mafia infiltration into the Italian business sector.
Between 2001 and 2020, out of 2.3 million active companies, 61,186 firms — about 2.6% of the total — were found to be infiltrated or involved in suspicious financial operations connected to individuals investigated or convicted for mafia-related crimes.
The most alarming finding: after a rating downgrade to substandard, bank credit drops on average by 7% per year, exceeding 30% over five years.
At that point, the likelihood of criminal infiltration rises by 0.1 percentage points, or roughly 5% above the average baseline risk.
A Nationwide Threat
The phenomenon is not confined to Southern Italy.
In absolute terms, the highest concentration of infiltrated businesses is in Milan, Rome, and Naples, where the industrial fabric is denser and credit competition fiercer.
Unimpresa’s study reveals that credit scarcity is a more decisive factor than geography itself.
The link between liquidity crises and criminal entry is particularly visible in contexts with limited access to alternative financing — such as venture funds, equity markets, or public guarantees.
Real Estate in the Crosshairs: The Perfect Channel for Dirty Money
The real estate sector shows a risk level 10 percentage points higher than the national average.
Its asset-based nature and the ease of disguising speculative transactions make it the preferred gateway for money laundering and territorial control.
Similarly, the construction and retail sectors, with their low capitalization and high dependence on credit, remain vulnerable entry points.
Zombie Firms: Surviving Without Growing
Firms infiltrated by criminal capital tend to survive longer than their clean counterparts — but without showing signs of economic recovery.
Their resilience is artificial, sustained by illicit liquidity, not market strength: stagnant revenues, shrinking employment, and compressed margins define their trajectory.
These are true “zombie companies”, which distort competition and absorb resources that should nourish legitimate businesses.
Longobardi (Unimpresa): “We Need Flexible Guarantees and Integrated Oversight”
“When credit tightens,” warns Paolo Longobardi, president of Unimpresa,
“liquidity shortages open financial gaps that criminal actors are quick to fill, offering easy money in exchange for influence or ownership.
We need a more flexible system of public guarantees that supports temporarily distressed firms before they turn to illicit sources.
We also need integrated financial oversight, combining credit ratings, corporate ownership data, and anti-money laundering alerts.
And we must build a smarter risk culture — one that distinguishes fragility from fault, and temporary crises from structural insolvency.”
He concludes:
“Economic legality depends on the quality of credit.
Every denied loan can become a vulnerability for the entire economy.”
Unimpresa’s Proposals
- Develop alternative financing channels for temporarily distressed firms
- Strengthen cross-referenced monitoring (ratings, ownership, AML reports)
- Target the most exposed sectors, starting with real estate and construction
- Promote a responsible credit culture as a pillar of economic trust
Key Findings at a Glance
- 2.6% of Italian firms involved in suspicious operations
- 30% cumulative credit reduction within 5 years after downgrade
- +5% higher infiltration risk linked to restricted credit
- Real estate is the top-risk sector, followed by construction and retail
- Medium-large firms are more exposed than microenterprises
- Zombie companies distort markets and perpetuate inefficiency