The commercial vehicle sector stands at a pivotal moment, balancing recovery signals with significant challenges in ecological transition. Structural reforms and targeted incentives will be essential to navigate these transformations successfully.
The commercial vehicle market faces ongoing challenges, recording 16,107 registrations in November, down 15.9% from the 19,151 units in November 2023. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, reflecting a second half of 2024 in stark contrast to the growth observed during the year’s first seven months, driven by orders accumulated in late 2023.
Despite these difficulties, the first eleven months of 2024 saw a 2.5% increase, with 183,336 vehicles registered compared to 178,829 in the same period in 2023. However, the prospects for pure electric vehicles (BEV) remain concerning, as their market share fell to 1.9%, a sharp drop from 3.3% in 2023. November showed a slight recovery, with a 2.5% share.
UNRAE estimates 198,000 registrations for 2024, reflecting a modest 0.7% growth from 196,552 units in 2023. However, 2025 is expected to see a 4% decline, with 190,000 units, still above the eight-year average of 183,500 vehicles.
Ecological transition challenges
UNRAE President Michele Crisci highlighted issues with the 2024 Ecobonus incentive plan, which left €14 million of the allocated €53 million unused. A multi-year plan starting in 2025 is needed, integrating structural adjustments and targeted resources such as tax incentives and infrastructure investments to support the energy transition.
Aligned with the Competitiveness Report presented by Mario Draghi, UNRAE advocates for a 50% tax credit for fast charging station investments (over 70 kW) between 2025 and 2027, seeing these measures as critical for advancing zero-emission mobility.
Market structure insights
From January to November 2024, private sales remained steady at 15%, while long-term rentals declined to 31.6%. Short-term rentals rose to 6.2%, and businesses and organizations increased their share to 39.8%. Self-registrations dropped to 7.3%.
In terms of fuel types, diesel, the only growing category, accounts for 84% of the market (+3.8 points), while petrol (3.8%), LPG (2.7%), and electric vehicles declined. CO2 emissions also worsened by 3.6%, reaching 195.8 g/Km.
